Abstract
Abstract. Wheat is the most widely grown crop globally and an essential source of calories in human diets. Maintaining and increasing global wheat production is therefore strongly linked to food security. In this paper, the evaluation model of winter wheat potential productivity was proposed based on agro-ecological zone and the historical winter wheat yield data in recent 30 years (1983-2011) obtained from FAO. And the potential productions of winter wheat in the world were investigated. The results showed that the realistic potential productivity of winter wheat in Western Europe was highest and it was more than 7500 kg/hm2. The realistic potential productivity of winter wheat in North China Plain were also higher, which was about 6000 kg/hm2. However, the realistic potential productivity of winter wheat in the United States which is the main winter wheat producing country were not high, only about 3000 kg/hm2. In addition to these regions which were the main winter wheat producing areas, the realistic potential productivity in other regions of the world were very low and mainly less than 1500 kg/hm2, like in southwest region of Russia. The gaps between potential productivity and realistic productivity of winter wheat in Kazakhstan and India were biggest, and the percentages of the gap in realistic productivity of winter wheat in Kazakhstan and India were more than 40%. In Russia, the gap between potential productivity and realistic productivity of winter wheat was lowest and the percentage of the gap in realistic productivity of winter wheat in Russia was only 10%.
Highlights
Over the few decades, the worldwide demand for agricultural products will grow considerably because of increasing populations, the use of agricultural products as biofuels and changing diets (Sacks et al, 2011; Tilman et al, 2011; Regmi and Meade, 2013)
Based on the evaluation model of winter wheat realistic potential productivity which was proposed in the methods apartment, the potential productions of winter wheat in the world were investigated
In the main producing countries of winter wheat, we conducted statistical analysis on the realistic potential productivity of winter wheat and the results showed in table 1 and figure 5
Summary
Over the few decades, the worldwide demand for agricultural products will grow considerably because of increasing populations, the use of agricultural products as biofuels and changing diets (Sacks et al, 2011; Tilman et al, 2011; Regmi and Meade, 2013). This increasing demand can be satisfied by expanding cultivated areas, the ecological and social trade-offs of further land expansion are high in most areas (Lambin et al, 2011). The increased demand for food supply worldwide calls for improved accuracy of crop productivity estimation (Brown et al, 2012)
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