Survival time of HIV/AIDS cases and influencing factors in Gansu province, 1997-2018

Abstract

Objective: To understand the survival time and influencing factors of HIV/AIDS cases in Gansu province from 1997 to 2018. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyze the AIDS epidemic data of Gansu from 1997 to 2018 collected from the National HIV/AIDS information system. Life-span table were used to calculate survival rate, Kaplan-Meier method was used to draw the survival curves and calculate the average survival time, the Cox proportional hazard regression model were used to analyze the risk factors for death for HIV/AIDS cases. Results: Among 6 813 HIV/AIDS cases, 715 (10.5%) died, and the average survival time was 195.9 months (95%CI: 189.7-202.2). The survival rates of 12 months, 60 months, 120 months and 180 months were 91.5%, 86.1%, 79.9% and 73.8%, respectively. Cox proportional hazard regression model showed that the risk factors for death in the HIV/AIDS cases were age (≥51 years old vs. ≤25 years old, HR=1.906, 95%CI: 1.353-2.685), transmission route (blood borne and others transmission vs. heterosexual transmission, HR=1.593, 95%CI: 1.226-2.069), detection way (hospital admission detection, blood transfusion and preoperative examination vs. entry-exit health examination, pre-marital examination and physical examination of recruits, HR=5.113, 95%CI: 2.083-12.547), disease phase (AIDS phase vs. HIV infection phase: HR=4.012, 95%CI: 3.401-4.732), baseline CD(4) count (no CD(4) detected vs. CD(4) count ≥350/μl, HR=5.446, 95%CI: 3.835-7.732), antiretroviral therapy (receiving no antiretroviral therapy vs. receiving antiretroviral therapy, HR=12.019, 95%CI: 9.861-14.648). Conclusions: The average survival time of HIV/AIDS cases was above 16 years in Gansu during 1997 to 2018. Death risk of HIV/AIDS cases might be increased by age ≥51 years, hospital admission detection, blood transfusion and preoperative examination, AIDS phase of disease phase, no baseline CD(4) detected and no receiving antiretroviral therapy. It is necessary to conduct early HIV test, diagnosis and antiretroviral treatment and increase antiretroviral treatment rates and CD(4) testing rate to improve the survival of HIV/AIDS cases.