Survival analysis of AIDS patients in Liangshan prefecture, Sichuan province from 1995 to 2012

Abstract

To analyze the survival time and its related factors among AIDS patients in Liangshan prefecture of Sichuan province from 1995 to 2012. A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyze the information of 5 263 AIDS patients. The data were collected from Chinese HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Information Management System. Life table method was applied to calculate the survival proportion, and Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportion hazard regression model were used to identify the factors related to survival time. Among 5 273 AIDS patients, 819 (15.6%)died of AIDS related diseases; 2 782(52.9%) received antiretroviral therapy. The average survival time was 126.7 (117.1-136.2) months, and the survival rate in 1, 5, 10, 15 years were 95.4%, 78.8%, 54.2%, and 31.8% respectively. Univariate analysis showed a significant difference in survival time of age diagnosed as AIDS patients, nationality, transmission route, AIDS phase, CD4(+)T cell counts in the last testing, receiving antiretroviral therapy or not. Multivariate Cox regression showed age diagnosed AIDS below 50 years old ( < 15 years old:HR = 0.141, 95%CI:0.036-0.551;15-49 years old:HR = 0.343, 95%CI:0.241-0.489), HIV infection diagnosed phase (HR = 0.554, 95%CI:0.432-0.709), CD4(+)T cell counts last testing ≥ 350/µl (HR = 0.347, 95%CI:0.274-0.439) reduced the risk of dying of AIDS related diseases among AIDS patients. The patients having not received antiretroviral therapy had a higher risk of death(HR = 3.478, 95%CI:2.943-4.112) compared to those who received antiretroviral therapy. Survival time of AIDS patients was possibly mainly influenced by the age of diagnosed as AIDS patients, AIDS phase, CD4(+)T cell counts and whether or not received antiretroviral therapy. The early initiation of antiretroviral therapy could extend the survival time.