Support for temporary protection of displaced populations in the EU: a conjoint experiment

Abstract

Millions of people were forced to flee Ukraine after Russia’s invasion on February 24, 2022, one of the fastest displacements in decades. Citizens' response in EU countries (where most displaced Ukrainians arrived) has been considerably more positive than in past refugee crises. This study investigates several possible drivers of this difference. We conduct a large conjoint experiment in six EU Member States, eliciting willingness to provide temporary protection to hypothetical groups of future migrants whose characteristics we manipulate systematically. We find that all of the experimental variables make a difference. We observe a greater support for protecting groups consisting of relatively many children and many women rather than men. The region of origin and the religious affiliation play a major role. Finally, we see greater support for people fleeing a war rather than poverty or the adverse consequences of climate change. While all these effects are identified consistently across different groups of respondents (e.g., the respondent's religion played a limited role), effect sizes vary considerably between countries. Finally, we randomly manipulate which aspect of temporary protection (social housing, access to the labour market) is emphasised in our communication to the participants. We find this manipulation to have a limited effect on the public support for the policy.