Substation Equipment Temperature Prediction Method considering Local Spatiotemporal Relationship

Abstract

Temperature prediction of substation equipment is one of the important means for intelligent inspection of substation equipment. However, there are still three challenges: (1) Limited extracted samples; (2) Typical nonlinearity, seasonality, and periodicity; (3) Changes in equipment and working conditions. To solve the problems above, a substation equipment temperature prediction method considering Spatio-temporal relationship (SETPM-CLSTR) is proposed. First, according to the time series of equipment temperature from two aspects of temporal and spatial, it is determined that the equipment temperature has seasonal, temporal, and spatial correlation; second, aiming at the problem that the spatial location correlation cannot be described quantitatively, grey relational analysis (GRA) is adopted to determine the spatial location monitoring points closely related to the prediction target; then, the daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature from the environment, the predicted target temperature from the past several times in time and the temperature from the spatial location monitoring point with close correlation in space are constructed as Spatio-temporal feature vectors; finally, CNN-BiLSTM double-layer depth network model is proposed to predict the equipment temperature. SETPM-CLSTR has applied to temperature prediction of phase A contact from primary equipment of a substation in Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province. Under the two prediction performance evaluation indexes of MASE and RMSE, compared with three correlation models of LSTM, BiLSTM, and CNN-LSTM from two aspects of different features and models, it is verified that SETPM-CLSTR in this study has better prediction performance.