Abstract
A simple model was built to predict the national and regional electricity demand by sectors under China’s new normal situation. In the model, the data dimensionality reduction method and the Grey model (GM(1,1)) were combined and adopted to disaggregate the national economic growth rate into regional levels and forecast each region’s contribution rate to the national economic growth and regional industrial structure. Then, a bottom–up accounting model that considered the impacts of regional industrial structure transformation, regional energy efficiency, and regional household electric consumption was built to predict national and regional electric demand. Based on the predicted values, this paper analyzed the spatial changes in electric demand, and our results indicate the following. Firstly, the proposed model has high accuracy in national electricity demand prediction: the relative error in 2017 and 2018 was 2.90% and 2.60%, respectively. Secondly, China’s electric demand will not peak before 2025, and it is estimated to be between 7772.16 and 8458.85 billion kW·h in 2025, which is an increase of 31.28–42.88% compared with the total electricity consumption in 2016. The proportion of electricity demand in the mid-west regions will increase, while the eastern region will continue to be the country’s load center. Thirdly, under China’s new normal, households and the tertiary industry will be the main driving forces behind the increases in electric demand. Lastly, the drop in China’s economy under the new normal will lead to a decline in the total electricity demand, but it will not evidently change the electricity consumption share of the primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, and household sector.
Highlights
Electric power is one of the most important secondary energy sources, and it is crucial to national economic development
Based on the assumption of the stable operation of the national economy, the characteristics of the new normal, and the requirement for energy saving, this study explores the relationship between national and regional economic development and forecasts the electricity demand under the economic new norm
We study the spatial distribution of electricity demand under the new normal; we compare the spatial distribution with the distribution in 2016 to obtain the effects of new normal on electric power demand and some suggestions
Summary
Electric power is one of the most important secondary energy sources, and it is crucial to national economic development. More than 40% of the total carbon emissions in China comes from the electrical power industry [1,2], which is a major participant of the Chinese carbon trading market. Accurately forecasting future electricity demand is very important for electric power production, construction, and supply: it has great practical significance for reducing carbon emissions in China. The methods used to forecast the electricity demand can be divided into two major categories: the data-driven model and the mechanism model. The data-driven method can be classified into three subcategories. The first subcategory is the econometric model Econometric methods, such as the co-integration test model and the multivariate linear regression model [3,4,5], are widely used to forecast electric demand.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
