Research on Forecasting Electricity Demand of the 13th Five-year in Hebei Province

Abstract

With the emergence of a “new economic norm” and “industrial restructuring”, the electricity demand situation in Hebei province will undergo significant changes in the future. Therefore, it is essential to predict electricity demand in the 13th Five-year for power planning and construction. Considering the factors and mechanisms determining electricity demand of various sectors are different, the total electricity consumption in this paper is divided into five parts: the first industry, industry, construction, the tertiary industry and resident sectors. The electricity demand equations of different sectors are established to make predictions, respectively. The results show that the total electricity consumption will grow at an annual rate of 3.46%-3.87% during 13 th Five-Year-Plan period, which would be more than 0.4234× 1012 kWh in 2020. The electricity consumption growth of tertiary industry and resident sectors would raise fast, which will grow at an annual rate of 8.72%-9.15% and 6.24%-6.72% during 13th Five-Year-Plan period. Moreover, comparing with the demand structure in 13th Five-Year-Plan period, the proportion for industrial electricity demand will decline by 5%, the proportions for tertiary industry and resident sector will increase by 3% and 2%. The electricity consumption structure in Hebei province would change in the future.