STUDY OF EXPORT FREIGHT FLOWS OF GRAIN FROM UKRAINE

Abstract

Purpose. After the beginning of the full-scale military aggression of the Russian Federation against our country, most of the logistics chains, including those related to ensuring the export of grain, were disrupted. The current system of transportation is focused on the transportation of grain to the western borders with further transshipment to wagons of the European track, which is a difficult and expensive option. In order to ensure the restoration of full-fledged grain export, it is advisable to conduct research on the origins and volume of grain movement, transportation routes and alternative options. Accordingly, the purpose of the study is to determine the main points of origin and repayment of cargo flows of grain export connections in Ukraine and to determine the direction of improvement of transport and technological lines of grain export from Ukraine in global supply chains. The volumes of car-go flow generation at the railway stations of Ukraine were analyzed. The scientific methods and methods of im-proving the transport and technological lines of grain export are substantiated. Methods. An analysis of literary sources was carried out, which made it possible to establish that the port direction is the main one for grain transportation. The peculiarity of the formation of export grain cargo flows is analyzed. Methods of mathematical statistics, probability theory, theory of sets, theory of algorithms, theory of transport processes and systems, theory of systems are used. It has been established that the distribution of the volumes of seed cargo flows by railway stations of departure in the 2021 / 2022 marketing year is mostly subject to asymmetric distribution laws. The smallest deviation is observed with Cauchy and Gamma distribution approximations. A statistical analysis of wagon flows with grain loads was performed, which allowed us to obtain the following results: the mathematical expectation is 55.8 wagons, the standard deviation is 58.0 wagons, the coefficient of variation is 1.04. Scientific novelty. The scientific novelty obtained as a result of the research to which the article is devoted is the obtained approximate density of the distribution of the volumes of grain cargo flows at the railway stations of departure (on the example of the 2021 / 2022 marketing year). Practical significance. The mathematical expectation and level of correlation of the origin of grain cargo flows at the railway stations of departure are established (on the example of the 2021 / 2022 marketing year). In further studies, the obtained results will be used as initial data for modeling the operation of the grain cargo transportation system in the direction of the western borders, and in the future - in the direction of the Black Sea ports of Ukraine.