Abstract
The Adige River Basin (ARB) provides a vital water supply source for varying demands including agriculture (wine production), energy (hydropower) and municipal water supply. Given the importance of this river system, information about past (paleo) drought and pluvial (wet) periods would quantity risk to water managers and planners. Annual streamflow data were obtained for four gauges that were spatially located within the upper ARB. The Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) provides an annual June–July–August (JJA) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) derived from 106 tree-ring chronologies for 5414 grid points across Europe from 0 to 2012 AD. In lieu of tree-ring chronologies, the OWDA dataset was used as a proxy to reconstruct both individual gauge and ARB regional streamflow from 0 to 2012. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to the four ARB streamflow gauges to generate one representative vector of regional streamflow. This regional streamflow vector was highly correlated with the four individual gauges, as coefficient of determination (R2) values ranged from 85% to 96%. Prescreening methods included correlating annual streamflow and scPDSI cells (within a 450 km radius) in which significant (p ≤ 0.01 or 99% significance) scPDSI cells were identified. The significant scPDSI cells were then evaluated for temporal stability to ensure practical and reliable reconstructions. Statistically significant and temporally stable scPDSI cells were used as predictors (independent variables) to reconstruct streamflow (predictand or dependent variable) for both individual gauges and at the regional scale. This resulted in highly skillful reconstructions of upper ARB streamflow from 0 to 2012 AD. Multiple drought and pluvial periods were identified in the paleo record that exceed those observed in the recent, historic record. Moreover, this study concurred with streamflow reconstructions in nearby European watersheds.
Highlights
Understanding the hydrological cycle in alpine regions is receiving more and more attention from the scientific community, especially in the context of climatic change, glacial evolution, extreme flood and droughts events, agriculture, and energy production [1,2,3,4]
Ref. [15] limited self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) cell to those within the Po River Basin watershed. This limitation of scPDSI cells likely contributed to the lower Po River Basin reconstruction skill when compared to the upper Adige River Basin (ARB) reconstruction skill obtained in this study
The confidence in the current upper ARB reconstructions was further validated when compared to the recent European streamflow reconstructions using the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) scPDSI [16]
Summary
Understanding the hydrological cycle in alpine regions is receiving more and more attention from the scientific community, especially in the context of climatic change, glacial evolution, extreme flood and droughts events, agriculture, and energy production [1,2,3,4]. The Alps are identified as the water towers of Europe, being the main source of fresh water for downstream areas, especially in the summer period [1,5]. Quantifying the drivers and the effects of hydrological extremes on water availability for water management and optimal allocation is an ongoing challenge, especially in snow-dominated environments [3,6]. The upper Adige River Basin (ARB) (Figure 1) is in the northeast region of the Italian Alps. The ARB covers two Italian regions (Trentino Alto-Adige and Veneto) and the upper part (Bolzano Province) accounts for around 62% of the entire catchment area [8,9,10]. The mean annual (Bolzano Province) accounts for around 62% of the entire catchment area [8,9,10]. The mean ambtinaomsnniung(aTptg)irh.nlrrhaTeeapdethcdhrinieAeeiepoencARirnnittptsatBoRhsitartwBiiatanoshtneindiswasodtisnanestsnrseehteiteseexgipregxahiepoahmsigmngllisoypholpopolnlveyflepeaosteorvh,ofsifawaef,trabhawihbalettieahbycysbihalppiceanciihisrcca)nioaanciusnltlr)uspoAAutrstuntlhlpspopreitniitnh1nnobf6eieealn10uscbfl6c0ieaaa0nuntmst0cecci[hnn4mehmm]cmt[,meh4(erei]eatnn,nh(ntsirte,tnpga,hpinasptnerptghreigsaaieesnotslbeisguedneaonttltibuhwsitdneittenrhteigriwsgeenb:tn:r(ruenirie)(tbaeiinrsrgou)eotintasrgouiotroionrnononofudngonponf5georfd0tlefehpec05vtleirhe0pmaev0eb--cmaaiptsiii(otniann)-. itationtio[1n1[]1a1n] dan(dii)(idi)isdcihsacrhgaersgewsiwthitahmaimniimniummumin itnhethweiwntienrtedrudeuteo ttohethsensonwowacacuccmuumlau-lation tion aannddaammaxaixmima ainilnatleatseprsipnrginagndanadutauumtunm, dnu,edtuoesntoowsnmoweltmineglatinndg caonndveccotnivveecsttoivremsst,orms, respercetisvpeelcyti[v3e,4ly]. [T3h,4e].ATRhBe iAsRoBneisoofntheeofmtohsetmimopstoirmtapnot rIttaanlitaIntarliivaenrsrifvoerr:s(if)orb:io(il)ogbiicoalol gical and eacnoldogecicoallorgiicchanl eriscsh, nheossst,inhgossteivnegrasel vperroatlecptreodteacrteeadsasruecahs asus cthheaSsttehleviSoteNlvaitoioNnaaltiPoanrakl Park and aalnadrgae lvaargrieetvyaorifehtyaboiftahtasbaintadtsnaantudrnalatsupreacliessp[e1c2ie],sa[n12d],(iai)nhdy(diir)oheyledcrtoreiclepcrtoridcupcrtoiodnu,ction, provipdrionvgiwdiantgerwfoatrearrfoournadro3u4nldar3g4e lhayrgderohpyodwroepropwlaenrtsplwanitths awnitahvearnaagveenroamgeinnaolmcainpaalccitaypacity largerlatrhgaenr 3thManW3 [M13W,14[]1.3,14]
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