Abstract
Strategic planning of the region is an important and effective method of building a rational system of mechanisms for state management of regional development. The development of a regional strategy makes it possible to identify the reserves of the systemic development of territories, which contributes to the economic growth of the country. Within the framework of strategic planning for the development of the territory, the most acute problem is the forecasting of macroeconomic indicators on which the subsequent strategic plans and programs of the region are based. In this regard, the issues of forecasting indicators and assessing potential risks are highly relevant. The study is aimed to develop a tool for predicting the social-and-economic parameters of the regional system in order to build effective strategic plans for regional development within the framework of the concept of ensuring the sustainability and economic security of the territory. The authors propose an approach based on the delta-normal method for calculating a quantitative risk measure. The approach is adapted to solve the problem of probabilistic assessment of indicators of the state of the system and risks and allows to determine the ranges of changes in the predicted indicator of the gross regional product of the region, considering the probable increments of factor indicators. The results of applying the developed approach may be used as the basis for strategic planning of measures to manage sustainability, economic security and dynamics of the territory’s development.
Highlights
IntroductionForecasting the strategic trajectory of the region is based on: analysis of the social-andeconomic situation in the region; study of the external environment of the region - patterns of regional, national and world level; considering the conditions for doing business and the interests of the main subjects of strategizing - authorities (state and local), entrepreneurs, industries and the public
Within the framework of goal-setting, the region is considered as the middle link in the hierarchy of social-and-economic systems: the macroeconomic goals of regional development coincide with the goals of the national system; mesoeconomic goals of regional development aggregate the goals of micro-level entities in a sectoral context
Let us show the application of the proposed method for assessing the predicted values of the economic security of the region
Summary
Forecasting the strategic trajectory of the region is based on: analysis of the social-andeconomic situation in the region; study of the external environment of the region - patterns of regional, national and world level; considering the conditions for doing business and the interests of the main subjects of strategizing - authorities (state and local), entrepreneurs, industries and the public. The result of this stage is the development of forecast trends in the social-and-economic development of the territory
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