STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT OF AGRARIAN SPHERE AND RECREATION IN THE ALTAI REGIONS, RUSSIA, UNDER REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE

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The object of research is the territory of the Altai regions of Russia, in particular, Altai Krai and the Republic of Altai. It combines cultural and natural landscapes of the zonal steppe and forest-steppe areas and mountain altitudinal belts distinguished by a variety of climatic conditions. The analysis of possible climate changes in the Altai region showed a predominant development of land aridization under the reduction of humidity under a significant regional warming. The climate change impact on the agriculture and recreation management as the most significant in the socio-economic development of the Altai regions is evaluated. It is expected that the risks of agrarian nature management as well as the probability of natural disasters and emergencies due to the spring and autumn frosts, droughts, and heavy rains will increase. The greatest negative consequences for agricultural production are expected in the lowland Altai (border with Kazakhstan) due to the further arid climate, and in the intermontane depressions of the southern part of the Altai Republic, where the increasing aridity and development of sheep breeding will result in the adverse environmental consequences (degradation of pastures). More comfort conditions are expected in the northeastern, eastern and piedmont areas of Altai Krai, where humidity is not a limiting factor for agricultural production, and the increasing heat will allow a wider range of crops grown. It is found that the increase in air temperature during the warm season has a positive effect on the duration of the tourist season and the occupancy of recreational facilities. The in-depth analysis of prospects for the development of specific types of recreational activities (TRA) revealed that out of 55 TRA, found in the Altai regions, the 11 demonstrate a tendency to a significant reduction in resources and capabilities, 7 to the development growth and 37 will remain without any changes. The climate change will exhibit a profound adverse effect on winter TRA (mountaineering, mountain skiing, etc.).