ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT STATE AND EXPECTED CHANGES IN AGRO-CLIMATIC RESOURCES OF THE GUBA-KHACHMAZ ECONOMIC REGION OF THE REPUBLIC OF AZERBAIJAN

Abstract

The article discusses some issues of assessing the current state and expected changes in agro-climatic resources of the Guba-Khachmaz economic region. Research methods are selected and substantiated. The issues of interpretation of agro-climatic information are considered to determine modern "norms" of agro-climatic indicators and assess the impact of regional climate change on these resources. To assess the impact of climate change on agroclimatic resources, such indicators as the date of the transition of the average daily air temperature above 10 °C in the spring and below 10 °C in the fall, the length of the warm period, the sum of active air temperatures above 10 °C, the sum of precipitation and the hydrothermal coefficient Selyaninov for the warm season. For example, it is shown that with the expected increase in air temperature by 2 °C, the beginning of the warm period will begin in the lowland, foothill and mid-mountain zones by 8-10 days, and in the highlands by 22 days earlier than in the modern period. In autumn, the end of the warm period is expected 11-15 days later; the length of the warm period is expected to increase by 20-23 days in the lowland, foothill and mid-mountain zones and by 37 days in the high-mountain zone. It is also expected that the sum of active temperatures will increase by 581-665 °C for the warm period. It was revealed that the most susceptible to the influence of an increase in global air temperature by 2 °C will be medium and high mountain zones. With an increase in air temperature in the future by 4 °C and a decrease in atmospheric precipitation by 20 %, the frequency of occurrence of the 1st group of drought with height will increase from 6 % to 33 %, the frequency of occurrence of the 2-nd group will change from -14 % to + 50 %, and the first group will decrease by 13-57 %. With an increase in air temperature in the future by 2 °C and a decrease in atmospheric precipitation by 20 %, the frequency of occurrence of various groups of drought will be similar to the previous variant. Also, an assessment was made of possible changes in the frequency of drought with different intensities.