Impact of Global Warming on the Vegetation Durable and Distribution Area of Crops in the Humid Subtropical and Mountainous Regions of Georgia

Abstract

The surface air temperature in the Eastern and Western parts of Georgia in conditions of global warming, has increased by 0.2-0.5oC, respectively. By 2030-2050, the average increase in the annual temperature may reach 1-2oC. Therefore, the preliminary evaluation of the impact of such an increase on the agrarian sector is important. The increasing and decreasing trends of the duration of the vegetation period and sums of active temperatures and atmospheric precipitations were revealed for the vegetation period in humid subtropical zone of Adjara in West Georgia and mountainous regions of Samtskhe-Javakheti in East Georgia, according to the trend. The increasing trend of the sum of temperatures in the humid subtropical zone of Adjara has reached 52oC for half a century (1956-2005). In terms of such a temperature increase, the sum of active temperatures is going to exceed 100oC by 2050 what will be beneficial for the ripening of citrus fruits and high productivity of other crops in terms of moderate soil productivity. The increasing trend for the sum of active temperatures in Samtskhe-Javakheti region in the above-said period reached 125oC according to the trend, and may double by 2050 reaching 3192oC. The given sum of active temperatures will improve the productivity of cereals, fruit-trees, vegetables, vine (early, with moderate ripeness) and other crops, in terms of relevant irrigation. According to the current (basic) and future scenario (2020-2050) in Adjara region, by considering 1oC increase in air temperature, there are four micro-zones allocated (up to 500 m a.s.l.) to grow appropriate crops. For Samtskhe-Javakheti region Under the current (basic) and future scenario, the increase in temperature by 2oC, there are four micro-zones allocated (by 500 m gradation), to grow appropriate crops.