STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF UKRAINE’S SECURITY ENVIRONMENT

Abstract

The article reports on the results of a strategic analysis of Ukraine's security environment based on a SWOT analysis. The focus is on the security environment as of the eve of the large-scale war launched by the Russian Federation against Ukraine in February 2022 as well as the changes it has undergone since then. The author prognosticates trends in the development of Ukraine's security environment in the post-war period based on the identified sources of the main threats to the national security of Ukraine, as well as vulnerabilities, advantages and opportunities for the development of the state and society in the new conditions. It is also predicted that sources of the main threats to the national security of Ukraine in the post-war period will undergo transformation. The author argues that a timely identification of existing and projected threats to national security, vulnerabilities, strengths of the state and society, and their opportunities to further protect national interests in the conditions of a certain security situation, when coupled with an account of trends in the development of the security environment, provide a foundation for determining the strategic goals and priorities of state policy in the area of national security. The research results give grounds to conclude that the main strategic goal for Ukraine in the area of national security is the development of sufficient domestic capabilities as a basis for ensuring its own security and resilience. The important vectors of state policy for ensuring the national security of Ukraine in the post-war period will include strengthening its defense capability, increasing the level of readiness to crises response, obtaining external security guarantees outside NATO, developing bilateral relations with strategic partners, restoring the economic and human development of Ukraine, and improving the efficiency of public administration.