Stock Return Response to Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction in Singapore

Abstract

The objective of the study is to examine the monetary and fiscal policies’ shock on house price variable by using the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model for Singapore economy. In addition, the study used international oil prices and gold prices in the SVAR model because concurrent development in oil and gold prices have central influenced over macroeconomic activities that are closely linked with the stock returns. The results indicate that oil price has significant positive effect on gold prices, interest rates and stock returns. Exchange rate and government expenditure shows a negative impact on oil prices. The inverse relationship between gold prices, exchange rate and stock return supports that gold used as a hedge against both markets. However, there is no evidence has been found for crowding out effect through increase in government expenditures. Interaction between exchange rate and stock return is supportive to both stock-oriented and flow oriented models.