Abstract
This study uses a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to investigate the effects of oil price shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in China. Our SVAR model is identified by sign restrictions with impulse response functions and variance decomposition. Using monthly data from December 1999 to July 2018, we find that a positive oil price shock has negative effects on economic growth and the money supply. The response of economic growth is more persistent than the responses of the other economic variables. International oil prices have had a substantially stronger impact on China’s real economy since the 2008 financial crisis. Chinese economic activity appears to be an important source of oil price changes.
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