Statistical Modeling of India’s Defence Expenditure

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to understand and predict statistical model of India’s military spending. The paper examines the influence of defense expenditure of China and Pakistan on India’s military expenditure. The paper also analyses China and Pakistan’s arms import of key technologies related to Air defense, Aircrafts, Missiles etc. as key factors for understanding India’s defense spending. The other important factor - GDP of India is also taken as an independent variable for predicting India’s military expenditure pattern. Using SPSS regression, the paper attempts to form a model having India’s Military Expenditure as dependent variable and Chinese Defence expenditure, Pakistan’s defense Expenditure, military import of Pakistan, Military import of China, GDP of India as independent variable. The military expenditure data of SIPRI from 1988 to 2014 has been used to predict the mathematical model of spending. The import data of Technologies is also sourced from SIPRI’s trade register. India’s GDP has been taken from World Bank and IMF. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) is an independent international institute in Sweden, dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established on 6 May 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public