Spurious Correlations in Terrorism Studies

Abstract

Attempts to understand ideologically inspired extremism commonly involve identifying covariates behind violence and their circumstances. This commentary argues that most of these covariations can only be spurious. Moreover, because these studies generally do not seek a specific causal mechanism, the identified covariations may have overlooked a causal explanation entirely. This core research deficiency is due to a methodological issue and has little to do with any primary data inadequacies. Invoking a recently published scholarship, I argue this to be the case regarding Sharia-invoking violent extremism. This commentary discusses the implications and suggests a way forward in understanding violent extremism.