Species distribution modeling in regions of high need and limited data: waterfowl of China

Diann J Prosser,R Michael Erwin,Jeffery D Sullivan,Taej Mundkur,Changqing Ding,Erle C Ellis

doi:10.1186/s40657-018-0099-4

Abstract

BackgroundA number of conservation and societal issues require understanding how species are distributed on the landscape, yet ecologists are often faced with a lack of data to develop models at the resolution and extent desired, resulting in inefficient use of conservation resources. Such a situation presented itself in our attempt to develop waterfowl distribution models as part of a multi-disciplinary team targeting the control of the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus in China.MethodsFaced with limited data, we built species distribution models using a habitat suitability approach for China’s breeding and non-breeding (hereafter, wintering) waterfowl. An extensive review of the literature was used to determine model parameters for habitat modeling. Habitat relationships were implemented in GIS using land cover covariates. Wintering models were validated using waterfowl census data, while breeding models, though developed for many species, were only validated for the one species with sufficient telemetry data available.ResultsWe developed suitability models for 42 waterfowl species (30 breeding and 39 wintering) at 1 km resolution for the extent of China, along with cumulative and genus level species richness maps. Breeding season models showed highest waterfowl suitability in wetlands of the high-elevation west-central plateau and northeastern China. Wintering waterfowl suitability was highest in the lowland regions of southeastern China. Validation measures indicated strong performance in predicting species presence. Comparing our model outputs to China’s protected areas indicated that breeding habitat was generally better covered than wintering habitat, and identified locations for which additional research and protection should be prioritized.ConclusionsThese suitability models are the first available for many of China’s waterfowl species, and have direct utility to conservation and habitat planning and prioritizing management of critically important areas, providing an example of how this approach may aid others faced with the challenge of addressing conservation issues with little data to inform decision making.

Highlights

Environmental managers face numerous priority needs, ranging from the protection of critical habitat and mitigating effects of environmental stressors on wildlife to balancing the needs of our natural systems with the Prosser et al Avian Res (2018) 9:7 modeling approaches to quantify and predict animal space use across time
We conducted a review of the English and Chinese literature for China’s 42 waterfowl species (Table 1) following the taxonomy provided by MacKinnon and Phillipps (2000)
Taxonomy and seasonal presence follows MacKinnon and Phillips (2000) a A species conservation status according to the IUCN (2017) is denoted as LC least concern, V vulnerable, NT near threatened, E endangered, CE critically endangered b The percent of suitable breeding habitat within Chinas protected areas c The percent of suitable wintering habitat within Chinas protected areas was structured in three parts: (a) records outlining seasonal habitat requirements for individual species, (b) population and survey counts, and (c) habitat relationship matrices that we developed to relate habitat requirements to land cover predictors

Summary

Introduction

Environmental managers face numerous priority needs, ranging from the protection of critical habitat and mitigating effects of environmental stressors on wildlife to balancing the needs of our natural systems with the Prosser et al Avian Res (2018) 9:7 modeling approaches to quantify and predict animal space use across time. Fine-grained distribution data may be locally available for some species; data are rarely available across large extents due to high costs of production. A number of conservation and societal issues require understanding how species are distributed on the landscape, yet ecologists are often faced with a lack of data to develop models at the resolution and extent desired, resulting in inefficient use of conservation resources. Such a situation presented itself in our attempt to develop waterfowl distribution models as part of a multi-disciplinary team targeting the control of the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus in China

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