Correlates of avian extinction timing around the world since 1500 CE

Abstract

Avian extinctions have been relatively well documented in modern history, and in the past millennia, more bird species are known to have gone extinct than species in any other vertebrate class. We examined the biological correlates of extinction timing among 216 bird species that recently were either observed to go extinct or disappeared since 1500 CE, performing a novel analysis for examining the extinction trends of birds by modelling traits against the number of years since present day during which species have been extinct. We analyzed a broad range of traits and characteristics that have previously been associated with extinction and extinction risk in birds and compared the effects of these traits simultaneously against one another. In order to provide a more comprehensive and robust assessment of trait-based drivers of global bird loss in comparison to prior studies, we included extinct species recognized by any of the three major avian taxonomies as well those birds that lack recent confirmed sightings and are at least functionally extinct. We found that insular, flightless, larger-bodied, ecologically specialized species, as well as those with high aspect ratio wings, were likely to go extinct earlier in time. Besides identifying the key locations and time periods over the past five centuries where birds have gone extinct, and highlighting specific extinction-prone taxonomic groups, we provide a complete and unified dataset of traits used in this study that helps address the lack of extensive public data on modern extinct species.