Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Forces of Tourism Economic Resilience in Chinese Provinces

Abstract

This study focuses on the resilience of tourism economies in Chinese provinces, exploring their spatiotemporal evolution and driving forces as a crucial prerequisite for promoting the high-quality development of China’s tourism industry. We construct a resilience evaluation index system from four dimensions: resistance resilience, recovery resilience, reshaping resilience, and development resilience, using provincial tourism data from 2012 to 2022. The study employs Moran’s Index, kernel density estimation, and GIS technology to investigate the differentiation characteristics, spatial evolution processes, and spatial agglomeration characteristics of provincial tourism economic resilience in China. Finally, the GeoDetector model is used to analyze the driving factors. The findings are as follows: (1) Over time, most provinces and cities in China have shown varying degrees of improvement in tourism economic resilience, with different changes observed across the four dimensions. (2) Spatially, significant differences exist between provinces, with better resilience in the east than in the west and in the south than in the north. (3) Regionally, while no polarization is observed, there is a distinct differentiation between high and low-value areas. (4) Regional linkages indicate the presence of interregional associations in China’s tourism economic resilience, with non-uniform distribution of cold and hot spots. (5) Key driving factors include per capita railway mileage, domestic tourism revenue, the number of travel agencies, and the number of employees in accommodation and catering. Under the backdrop of rapid tourism economic development, improving infrastructure construction and enhancing the comprehensive strength of the tourism industry is vital for boosting tourism economic resilience.