Spatial and temporal variation of economic resilience and its drivers: Evidence from Chinese cities

Abstract

Based on panel data of 282 cities in China from 2005 to 2019, this paper constructs an economic resilience evaluation index system in three dimensions and applies the entropy value method to measure it. The two-stage nested Thiel index, kernel density estimation and geographic detector methods are also used to explore the characteristics of their spatial and temporal divergence and their driving factors. We find that the economic resilience of Chinese cities has increased rapidly over the sample period, but with significant spatial variation, with the intra-provincial variation being the main source of the overall variation. Without considering the spatial conditions, the economic resilience of cities has a strong stability. In the case of spatial conditions, spatial factors have a significant impact on cities with low economic resilience, but not on cities with high economic resilience. Differences in technological innovation capabilities are a key driver of spatial divergence in the economic resilience of Chinese cities. The interaction of any two factors enhances their respective effects on the spatial differentiation of economic resilience in Chinese cities. Based on the above findings, cities should actively explore targeted and differentiated ways to improve economic resilience based on their comparative advantages, accelerate the construction of a collaborative improvement mechanism for urban economic resilience, and support the collaborative improvement of urban economic resilience in China. Our findings provide a useful reference for promoting the concerted improvement of economic resilience in Chinese cities.