Spatio-temporal Evolution and Coordinated Development of Compactness with Carbon Emission Intensity in the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration

Abstract

Studies on the spatio-temporal variation and coordinated development level of compactness with carbon emission intensity in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration is of great significance to achieve green, low-carbon, and high-quality development of society. The spatial-temporal differentiation, coupling coordination, and driving factors of the compactness and carbon emission intensity of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration from 2010 to 2020 were analyzed by using the methods of comprehensive evaluation, carbon emission identical equality, coupling coordination, and the Geo-detector model. The results showed that:① The compactness of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration continued to rise from 0.18 in 2010 to 0.22 in 2020, with an overall increase of 22.22 %, in which the contribution rate of economic compactness to urban compactness increased yearly. There were significant regional differences in the compactness of cities. The high-value areas were concentrated in Chengdu, Deyang, and Mianyang in the northwest and Zigong, Neijiang, and Luzhou in the southwest, whereas the low-value areas were distributed in the middle. Ya'an was always the area with the lowest compactness of urban agglomeration. ② The carbon emission intensity of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration was decreasing yearly, with a decrease rate of 39.57 % during the study period. The carbon emission intensity in the southern part of the urban agglomeration was higher than that in other regions as a whole, whereas Chengdu and Chongqing were low-value areas all the year round, and the regional differences of carbon emission intensity were gradually narrowing. ③ The coupling degree between urban compactness and carbon emission intensity changed from the antagonistic stage to the running-in stage; the coupling coordination degree increased notably, from 0.21 in 2010 to 0.69 in 2020; and the two systems gradually moved towards benign and coordinated development. The coupling coordination between the northwest of the urban agglomeration (Chengdu, Deyang, and Mianyang) and the south of Sichuan (Zigong and Luzhou) was generally high. Industrial structure, scientific and technological innovation, urbanization level, government intervention, and environmental livability all had significant effects on the coupling and coordination of the two systems. ④ Optimizing industrial structure, strengthening scientific and technological support, improving the quality of urbanization development, implementing active policy guidance, and building green barriers were effective ways to promote the coordinated development of compactness and low carbon in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration.