Spatio-temporal analysis of urbanization effects: unravelling land use and land cover dynamics and their influence on land surface temperature in Aligarh City

Abstract

ABSTRACT Rapid urbanization causes significant changes in land use and land cover (LULC), contributing to Urban Heat Islands (UHIs) and environmental challenges. This study analyzes two decades of Landsat satellite imagery to examine LULC changes and their impact on Land Surface Temperature (LST) in Aligarh City, India. Supervised classification using maximum likelihood techniques produced LULC maps with 85% accuracy. The results show a 21.10% increase in built-up areas, from 2338.83 hectares in 2001 to 2832.66 hectares in 2021, alongside a 24.55% decline in vegetation, from 620.28 hectares to 467.91 hectares. LST increased by 11.35°C, with a total maximum rise of 10.70°C between 2001 and 2021. Regression analysis revealed strong correlations between LST and spectral indices, with NDVI showing a negative correlation (R² = 0.89, 0.83, 0.78) and NDBI a positive one (R² = 0.87, 0.89, 0.79). The Aligarh main city area consistently recorded higher LST values than the AMU campus, with 88.60% of the city area in the 40–45°C range by 2021, compared to 52.87% for the campus. This study underscores the need for sustainable urban strategies to mitigate UHI effects and promote climate resilience.