Modelling future land use land cover changes and their impacts on urban heat island intensity in Guangzhou, China

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During rapid urbanization in developing countries, changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can significantly alter urban land surface temperatures (LST), exacerbating the urban heat island (UHI) effect and degrading the outdoor environment. In this study, taking Guangzhou, China, as an example, we used Landsat series satellite data from 1992 to 2022, classified the LULC of the study area by the Support Vector Machine (SVM) method, estimated the LST of the area by the mono-window algorithm, and classified the LST of the study area into five UHI intensity classes based on the normalized values of the LST, and explored the influence of the LULC on the distribution of the UHI intensity. The CA-ANN (cellular automata-artificial neural network) model in QGIS software was employed to forecast the distribution of LULC and UHI intensity in Guangzhou for 2032. The findings reveal a strong correlation between UHI intensity and LULC, with water bodies and vegetation primarily exhibiting low and sub-low temperatures, while urban areas exhibit sub-high and high temperatures. The prediction results show that, according to the current development trend, compared with 1992, the water body and vegetation cover in 2032 will decrease by 46.97% and 34.24%, the building land will increase by 263.71%, and the sub-high and high temperature areas will increase by 127.76% and 375.92%. By analysing the spatial and temporal changes in LULC and its relationship with the distribution of UHI intensity during urbanization, this study assists government administrations and urban planners in devising sensible urban development strategies and implementing effective measures to plan LULC rationally. This approach aims to mitigate the impacts of the urban heat island and foster sustainable urbanization.