Spatial Downscaling of TRMM Precipitation Data Using an Optimal Subset Regression Model with NDVI and Terrain Factors in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, China

Abstract

High accuracy, high spatial resolution precipitation data is important for understanding basin-scale hydrology and the spatiotemporal distributions of regional precipitation. The objective of this study was to develop a reliable statistical downscaling algorithm to produce high quality, high spatial resolution precipitation products from Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) 3B43 data over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin using an optimal subset regression (OSR) model combined with multiple topographical factors, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and observational data from rain gauge stations. After downscaling, the bias between TRMM 3B43 and rain gauge data decreased considerably from 0.397 to 0.109, the root-mean-square error decreased from 235.16 to 124.60 mm, and the r2 increased from 0.54 to 0.61, indicating significant improvement in the spatial resolution and accuracy of the TRMM 3B43 data. Moreover, the spatial patterns of both precipitation rates of change and their corresponding p value statistics were consistent between the downscaled results and the original TRMM 3B43 during the 2001–2014 period, which verifies that the downscaling method performed well in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin. Its high performance in downscaling precipitation was also proven by comparing with other models. All of these findings indicate that the proposed approach greatly improved the quality and spatial resolution of TRMM 3B43 rainfall products in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, for which rain gauge data is limited. The potential of the post-real-time Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) downscaled precipitation product was also demonstrated in this study.