Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Summer Precipitation over Central Europe in a Suite of High-Resolution Climate Models

Abstract

Abstract High-impact, locally intense rainfall episodes represent a major socioeconomic problem for societies worldwide, and at the same time these events are notoriously difficult to simulate properly in climate models. Here, the authors investigate how horizontal resolution and model formulation influence this issue by applying the HIRLAM–ALADIN Regional Mesoscale Operational NWP in Europe (HARMONIE) Climate (HCLIM) regional model with three different setups: two using convection parameterization at 15- and 6.25-km horizontal resolution (the latter within the “gray zone” scale), with lateral boundary conditions provided by ERA-Interim and integrated over a pan-European domain, and one with explicit convection at 2-km resolution (HCLIM2) over the Alpine region driven by the 15-km model. Seven summer seasons were sampled and validated against two high-resolution observational datasets. All HCLIM versions underestimate the number of dry days and hours by 20%–40% and overestimate precipitation over the Alpine ridge. Also, only modest added value was found for gray-zone resolution. However, the single most important outcome is the substantial added value in HCLIM2 compared to the coarser model versions at subdaily time scales. It better captures the local-to-regional spatial patterns of precipitation reflecting a more realistic representation of the local and mesoscale dynamics. Further, the duration and spatial frequency of precipitation events, as well as extremes, are closer to observations. These characteristics are key ingredients in heavy rainfall events and associated flash floods, and the outstanding results using HCLIM in a convection-permitting setting are convincing and encourage further use of the model to study changes in such events in changing climates.