Spatial analysis of temperature time series over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan

Yasir Latif,Ma Yaoming,Muhammad Atif Wazir,Sher Muhammad,Muhammad Yaseen

doi:10.1007/s00704-019-02993-8

Abstract

Runoff generated from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) mainly originates in the massifs of the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya (HKH) region of Pakistan. Water supply in early spring depends upon the snow accumulation in the winter and the subsequent temperature. Seasonal temperature variations corroborate the contemporary dynamics of snow and glaciers. Recently, there has been increasing evidence of accelerated warming in high mountain areas, termed as elevation-dependent warming (EDW). We have identified trends, analyzed inconsistencies, and calculated changes in the maximum, minimum, mean and diurnal temperature range (Tmax, Tmin, Tmean, and DTR) at 20 weather stations during four-time series: 1961–2013 (first), 1971–2013 (second), 1981–2013 (third), and 1991–2013 (fourth). We employed the Mann–Kendall test to determine the existence of a trend and Sen’s method for the estimation of prevailing trends, whereas homogeneity analysis was applied before trend identification using three different tests. This study revealed that the largest and smallest magnitudes of trends appeared in the winter and summer, respectively, particularly during the fourth data series. Tmax revealed robust warming at ten stations, most remarkably at Gupis, Khunjrab, and Naltar at rates of 0.29, 0.36, and 0.43 °C/decade, respectively, during the fourth series. We observed that Tmin exhibits a mixed pattern of warming and cooling during the second and third series, but cooling becomes stronger during the fourth series, exhibiting significant trends at twelve stations. Khunjrab and Naltar showed steady warming during the fourth series (spring), at rates of 0.26 and 0.13 °C/decade in terms of Tmean. The observed decreases in DTR appeared stronger in the fourth series during the summer. These findings tend to partially support the notion of EDW but validate the dominance of cooling spatially and temporally.

Highlights

The High Mountain Asia (HMA) region is mainly classified into three ranges: the combined Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya (HKH), commonly known as the “third pole” (TP) due to the massive volume of glacier cover in its high-altitude basins (Yao et al 2012)
The snow-capped peaks, glaciers, and resulting water resources originating from this region comprise the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) in Pakistan, which entails a decisive significance to the interests of this country
We presented annual and seasonal temperature for eight meteorological stations (> 2000 m.a.s.l) in the form of a box-andwhisker plot to provide a detailed distribution of data

Summary

Introduction

The High Mountain Asia (HMA) region is mainly classified into three ranges: the combined Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya (HKH), commonly known as the “third pole” (TP) due to the massive volume of glacier cover in its high-altitude basins (Yao et al 2012). The glacier coverage of HMA provides a huge contribution to riverflow as water supply for millions of people (Immerzeel 2008; Lutz et al 2016). The snow-capped peaks, glaciers, and resulting water resources originating from this region comprise the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) in Pakistan, which entails a decisive significance to the interests of this country. South and Southeast Asian rivers are dependent on summer monsoons, while the UIB is reliant upon runoff generated from snow and glaciers (Hasson et al 2014). The riverflow generated within this region contributes to approximately 80% of the total annual surface water availability of Pakistan, mainly during the summer (June–September) (Ali et al 2009). Temperature, being the most sensitive parameter, dictates the amount of runoff generated due to either snow or glacier melt in high-altitude regions.

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Discussion

Conclusion