Abstract
The upper Indus basin (UIB) holds one of the most substantial river systems in the world, contributing roughly half of the available surface water in Pakistan. This water provides necessary support for agriculture, domestic consumption, and hydropower generation; all critical for a stable economy in Pakistan. This study has identified trends, analyzed variability, and assessed changes in both annual and seasonal precipitation during four time series, identified herein as: (first) 1961–2013, (second) 1971–2013, (third) 1981–2013, and (fourth) 1991–2013, over the UIB. This study investigated spatial characteristics of the precipitation time series over 15 weather stations and provides strong evidence of annual precipitation by determining significant trends at 6 stations (Astore, Chilas, Dir, Drosh, Gupis, and Kakul) out of the 15 studied stations, revealing a significant negative trend during the fourth time series. Our study also showed significantly increased precipitation at Bunji, Chitral, and Skardu, whereas such trends at the rest of the stations appear insignificant. Moreover, our study found that seasonal precipitation decreased at some locations (at a high level of significance), as well as periods of scarce precipitation during all four seasons. The observed decreases in precipitation appear stronger and more significant in autumn; having 10 stations exhibiting decreasing precipitation during the fourth time series, with respect to time and space. Furthermore, the observed decreases in precipitation appear robust and more significant for regions at high elevation (>1300 m). This analysis concludes that decreasing precipitation dominated the UIB, both temporally and spatially including in the higher areas.
Highlights
The Indus River passes through an enormous region of mountains in Asia and provides one of the foremost water reserves of Pakistan as it emerges from the Tibetan Plateau and the Himalayas
Our purpose was to determine the influence of precipitation on other aspects of climate change
Our findings follow: (1) Temporal trends in annual precipitation strongly decreased during the 1961–2013 period
Summary
More than 60 % of this area lies within Pakistan and encompasses a drainage area of nearly 966,000 km 2. This includes a basin contributing its six major tributaries: the Sutlej, Ravi, Beas, Jhelum, Chenab, and Kabul rivers, from the four bordering countries (Afghanistan, China, India, and Pakistan). Sharing of the Indus River water has sometimes been quarrelsome between India and Pakistan, since Pakistan declared its independence in 1947. Irrigation systems of both countries depend on the water from the Indus and its tributaries, both for domestic consumption and hydropower. An assessment regarding the potential impacts of climate change on water resources over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) would be helpful to understand (and potentially resolve) water issues in the coming decades, with particular importance for the downstream areas (Khan et al 2014; Zentner 2012; Archer et al 2010; Barnett et al 2005)
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