Climatology and trends of atmospheric water vapour transport in New Zealand

Abstract

Atmospheric moisture transport is crucial for understanding New Zealand’s climate dynamics, particularly with respect to extreme precipitation events. While the majority of previous studies have focussed on Atmospheric Rivers (ARs), this study examines the entire spectrum of water vapour transport and its link to extreme precipitation using 40 years (1981–2020) of Integrated Water Vapour Transport (IVT) data over the region. Although ARs are important drivers of extreme precipitation, they are infrequent as they account for less than 10% of total moisture transport at most coastal locations. Extreme water vapour transport (defined by the 90th percentile IVT threshold) corresponds more closely with precipitation extremes than ARs alone, even using an expanded AR detection range. Here, IVT is classified into strength categories from weak to strong. Over the study period, all but the weakest category of IVT has increased in frequency of occurrence over most of the South Island, while decreasing in northern North Island. Similarly, monthly IVT anomaly trends show a positive trend in the South Island and negative trend in the northern North Island during warmer months. Separate analysis of moisture weighted wind speeds (UV) and total column water vapour (TCWV) revealed that even though the dynamic component of IVT has decreased in many locations, the increase in TCWV across New Zealand is the driving factor underpinning the IVT trends. Correspondingly, these findings indicate the importance of analysis both dynamic and thermodynamic factors in seeking to understand hydrometeorological variation and when investigating the responses to climate change.