Abstract
The object of research is the industrial risk of an industrial facility. One of the most problematic places is the uncertainty of the initial information regarding the object of study and the lack of a universal methodology that would allow an assessment of technological risks at all stages of the operation of an industrial object. A particularly acute problem concerns potentially hazardous industries.The analysis of existing methods and approaches to assessing the technological risks of industrial facilities at different stages of their functioning is carried out. It is established that one of the best methods is the Monte Carlo method, which allows to quantify the uncertainty of decisions. The use of the Monte Carlo method for quantitative hazard analysis in order to determine the probability of accidents and accidents, the magnitude of the risk, the magnitude of the possible consequences is justified.The elements of the theory of reliability for the quantitative assessment of risks are used. A quantitative hazard analysis in accordance with the theory of reliability makes it possible to determine the probability of accidents and accidents, the magnitude of the risk, the magnitude of the possible consequences. Probability methods and statistical analysis are integral parts of the quantitative analysis of hazards and technological risk.An algorithm is developed to determine the industrial risk of an industrial facility using the theory of reliability. A software package is developed based on the theory of reliability with a combination of Monte Carlo simulation of the system. The developed software package allows to analyze the level of technogenic risk when using various methods of connecting elements of the system, as well as evaluate changes in the reliability of the system when using other components. The program is presented on the example of a system, the components of which are the heaters PVT1-7 (Ukraine) in the technological system of a thermal power plant. The system under study is at the border of an unacceptable and conditionally acceptable level of danger, which gives grounds for the need to take measures to increase the reliability of the system by increasing the number of backup system elements, or improving their quality.
Highlights
Today, there are a large number of risk assessment techniques
The results are compared using index estimates [17] and the method proposed by the authors using the Monte Carlo method for a system of seven efficient units in the technological system of a thermal power plant
A feature of the proposed algorithm is the prediction of anthropogenic risk under normal operation of the facility using the simulation method
Summary
There are a large number of risk assessment techniques. A variety of technological schemes, limited initial data, the difficulty of determining the consequences of accidents and their possible development scenarios affect the risk assessment procedure and lead to situations where the methods are used for other purposes. This subsequently leads to a negative impact on the adequacy of the risk assessment in the operation of potentially hazardous industries. Improving the mathematical and methodological apparatus for quantitative and qualitative risk analysis and creating a universal risk analysis algorithm is a promising and relevant issue in the world
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
