Identification of Indicators for the Assessment of Technological Risks within Technology Selection

Abstract

An accelerated technological change combined with shortened technology development- and life-cycles results in additional pressure on technology-oriented companies in global competition. These companies are compelled to make decisions for new technologies at an early stage to secure existing and gain new competitive advantages. The challenge is to make the right technology decisions considering the existing high uncertainty at this stage. Hence, existing risks must be assessed concerning the forecast potential to become manageable for decision-making processes. While existing approaches for the assessment of new technologies are primarily focused on technology potentials, holistic approaches for risk assessment of technologies are missing. In particular, there is a lack of the required assessment basis indicating the technological risk. To establish a valid basis for such a technology risk assessment and to support companies in technology selection at an early stage, this paper provides a set of risk factors as indicators for the assessment of technological risks. The identification of these risk factors is based on an extensive literature review. Using a systematic procedure, 83 publications were identified and 697 possible factors were initially compiled. Finally, 19 risk factors were derived based on quantitative and qualitative analyses, which provides the foundation for assessing the technological risks of new technologies. The procedure as well as the identified risk factors are presented in this paper.