Socio-Hydrological Agent-Based Modeling as a Framework for Analyzing Conflicts Within Water User Organizations

Abstract

Water resource management in agriculture faces complex challenges due to increasing scarcity, exacerbated by climate change, and the intensification of conflicts among various user groups. This study addresses the issue of predicting and managing these conflicts in the Longaví River Basin, Chile, by considering the intricate interactions between hydrological, social, and economic factors. A socio-hydrological agent-based model (SHABM) was developed, integrating hydrological, economic, and behavioral data. The methodology combined fieldwork with computational modeling, characterizing three types of agents (selfish, neutral, and cooperative) and simulating scenarios with varying levels of water availability and oversight across three water user organizations (WUOs). The key findings revealed that (1) selfish agents are more likely to disregard irrigation schedules under conditions of scarcity and low supervision; (2) high supervision (90%) significantly reduces conflicts; (3) water scarcity exacerbates non-cooperative behaviors; (4) high-risk conflict areas can be identified; and (5) behavioral patterns stabilize after the third year of simulation. This work demonstrates the potential of SHABM as a decision-making tool in water management, enabling the proactive identification of conflict-prone areas and the evaluation of management strategies.