Date Palm and Water Management in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: New Insights Using Bayesian Longitudinal Model

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This study applies panel techniques with macro variables to analyze the connection between date palms production and water management in GCC countries using the Bayesian random and mixed effects models. Also, this study utilizes panel-corrected standard error (PCSE) and feasibly generalized least squares (FGLSs) methods to test the robustness and verify the Bayesian results. By utilizing a Bayesian longitudinal model, this study not only fills in a critical research gap but also provides a fresh perspective on the dynamics of water management practices and their impact on date palm cultivation over time. The results of this study confirm that the posterior means for coefficients of the water efficiencies for all purposes are positive with a magnitude of 11%, 28%, and 125%, respectively, for agriculture, services, and industrial purposes, determining that the Bayesian inference is efficient and reasonable. This result indicates the fit of the model, the validation of the results, and the knowledge that decision-making can suggest water management strategies for date palm cultivation. The findings from the PCSE and FGLSs models confirm that efficient water use in services (β = −0.329, significant at 1%) and agriculture (β = −2.834, significant at 1%) can lead to increased competition for limited water resources, reducing water availability for palm cultivation. Water use efficiency for industrial purposes (β = 0.503, significant at 1%) shows a positive relationship. Industrial water efficiency practices, such as water recycling, can help preserve water resources, managing more water available for agricultural activities. In addition, industrial water efficiency initiatives often involve technological innovations that can be applied to agriculture, improving water management practices in palm production. Developing and implementing comprehensive strategies, such as Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM), that consider water needs for all purposes and establish coordinated water distribution plans to ensure sustainable water use practices across various sectors are highly recommended for policymakers and stakeholders. Also, further research must be performed to investigate the implications of climate change on water resources and date production to develop adaptation strategies that enhance the resilience of date palm cultivation. This will help the development of sustainable agricultural practices that balance water conservation with agrarian productivity.