Abstract
The development of China’s new urbanization has driven the rapid increase in large complex engineering projects, which have the characteristics of large‐scale investment, long‐term construction, and wide social influence, easily causing benefit conflicts among relevant stakeholders, and breaking out social stability risks. In the previous research, the risks of large complex engineering projects mainly concentrated on the assessment of economic risk, schedule risk, etc. However, there were few studies on social risks, and they did not consider how the risks spread on the complex networks based on the social connections such as interpersonal relationship. From the subject of social stability risk diffusion of large complex engineering projects, this paper constructs a related risk diffusion model based on the SIR model to analyze risk diffusion mechanism. Through NetLogo simulation platform, the model is placed under a small‐world network environment that is closest to the topology structure of real social interpersonal relationship network for simulation research, aiming to find out key factors of social stability risk intervention for large complex engineering projects, which greatly contributes to the social stability risk management of large complex engineering projects.
Highlights
With the acceleration of economic growth and modernization, large complex engineering projects have entered a period of rapid growth, making great contributions to social and economic development
Based on the analysis of subjects, interactive model, and infectious disease characteristics of the social stability risk diffusion of large complex engineering projects, this paper discusses the adaptability of the infectious disease model
E traditional SIR model is improved from the aspects of diffusion subjects and diffusion rules, and by regarding the small-world network as the complex network topology, the diffusion process of social stability risks of large complex engineering projects is studied through the NetLogo simulation platform. e results are shown as below: First of all, we found that the changes in risk diffusion rate p(x), risk dormancy rate α, and risk extinction rate μ can affect the final steady state of social stability risk diffusion of large complex engineering projects, which are basically consistent with the theoretical analysis results
Summary
With the acceleration of economic growth and modernization, large complex engineering projects have entered a period of rapid growth, making great contributions to social and economic development. Taking the currently controversial PX project in China as an example, some newly constructed PX projects have triggered many social stability risk events due to the adverse impact on the environment. Ere are some other social stability risk events triggered by large complex engineering projects that have a great impact on the normal order of society and economy. The different network structures formed among the subjects have changed the evolution results of the subject conflicts and significantly affected the process of social stability and risk diffusion. Erefore, under the complex network environment, studying the social stability risk diffusion process of large complex engineering projects and proposing a social stability risk management mechanism that conforms to its scientific laws is an alternative way to solve the social stability risk problem of large complex engineering projects in China, which is an urgent task in practice The “safety valve” of the institutionalized arrangements for social stability risk management of large complex projects will fail. erefore, under the complex network environment, studying the social stability risk diffusion process of large complex engineering projects and proposing a social stability risk management mechanism that conforms to its scientific laws is an alternative way to solve the social stability risk problem of large complex engineering projects in China, which is an urgent task in practice
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