Abstract
Can we share even today the same vision of modernity which Durkheim left us by its suicide analysis? or can society ‘surprise us’? The answer to these questions can be inspired by several studies which found that beginning the second half of the twentieth century suicides in western countries more industrialized and modernized do not increase in a constant, linear way as modernization and social fragmentation process increases, as well as Durkheim’s theory seems to lead us to predict. Despite continued modernizing process, they found stabilizing or falling overall suicide rate trends. Therefore, a gradual process of adaptation to the stress of modernization associated to low social integration levels seems to be activated in modern society. Assuming this perspective, the paper highlights as this tendency may be understood in the light of the new concept of social systems as complex adaptive systems, systems which are able to adapt to environmental perturbations and generate as a whole surprising, emergent effects due to nonlinear interactions among their components. So, in the frame of Nonlinear Dynamical System Modeling, we formalize the logic of suicide decision-making process responsible for changes at aggregate level in suicide growth rates by a nonlinear differential equation structured in a logistic way, and in so doing we attempt to capture the mechanism underlying the change process in suicide growth rate and to test the hypothesis that system’s dynamics exhibits a restrained increase process as expression of an adaptation process to the liquidity of social ties in modern society. In particular, a Nonlinear Logistic Map is applied to suicide data in a modern society such as the Italian one from 1875 to 2010. The analytic results, seeming to confirm the idea of the activation of an adaptation process to the liquidity of social ties, constitutes an opportunity for a more general reflection on the current configuration of modern society, by relating the Durkheimian Theory with the Halbwachs’ Theory and most current visions of modernity such as the Baumanian one. Complexity completes the interpretative framework by rooting the generating mechanism of adaptation process in the precondition of a new General Theory of Systems making the non linearity property of social system’s interactions and surprise the functioning and evolution rule of social systems.
Highlights
Current sociological research supports the idea according to which Egoistic suicide is the distinctive product of modernity, showing Durkheim’s acquisitions still valid today
How can we answer questions such as the following ones: How and why do suicide rates vary over time and space? Why do people commit more suicides in certain social environments than in others? How and why do suicides vary among different social categories? the answers to these queries cannot be found in the analysis of single individual suicide motivations, too fragmented to account for suicide rate trends alternating pattern of stability and variability for the same society over time and between different societies
The analysis showed a reduction in rise of suicide rates relating to the industrial triangle regions (Piedmont, Lombardy, Liguria), the first regions to be transformed by the industrialization process, and a constant increase of suicide growth rate in the Central and Southern Italian regions, such as Umbria, Marche, Abruzzo-Molise, Basilicata, Puglia, Calabria, which were considered involved in a more recent development of industrialization-modernization process
Summary
Current sociological research supports the idea according to which Egoistic suicide is the distinctive product of modernity, showing Durkheim’s acquisitions still valid today. Assuming the Durkheimian perspective according to which modernization/individualization process impacts on suicide curve and the suicide curve constitutes a tangible sign to make inferences about quality of its effects, in the frame of Nonlinear Dynamical System Modeling we study how the state of suicide population (St) changes in time by formalizing the logic of suicide decision-making process responsible at aggregate level for changes of suicide growth rate by a nonlinear differential equation structured in a logistic way, and in so doing we attempt to capture the mechanism underlying the change process in suicide growth rates (derivatives) and to test the hypothesis that system’s dynamics exhibits on the whole an restrained increase process both in suicide growth rates and, in integrative suicide population as expression of an adaptation process to the liquidity of social ties in modern society From this perspective, the suicide dynamical analysis becomes an opportunity for a more general reflection on the current configuration of modern society, by relating the Durkheimian Theory with most current visions of modernity such as the Baumanian one
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