Soccer Bubble: Is There a Speculative Bubble in the Price of International Soccer Players?

Abstract

An exponentially increasing trend of players’ registration prices has taken place since 2012, and we test the hypothesis that this may be a speculative bubble, using a structural break test (Chow test) on a data set of international soccer players' registration prices, that ranges from 2007 to 2019. The test confirms the presence of an abrupt change in the trend of these prices since the year 2012, both for the whole data set and for subgroups based on the types of competition considered (Champions League, Europa League, and residual) and on the age of the players. We surmise that a possible root at the base of this trend is the need for soccer teams to cope with the Fair Play regulation, which has taken place exactly in the same years, and caused an excess of players’ trading as a means to comply with the obligation for teams to balance their books over time.