Estimating and Testing for Multiple Distributional Structural Breaks via a Characteristic Function Approach

Abstract

We estimate and test for multiple structural breaks in distribution with unknown break dates via a characteristic function approach. By minimizing the sum of squared generalized residuals, we can consistently estimate the break fractions. We propose a sup-F type test for structural breaks in distribution and suggest an information criterion and a sequential testing procedure to determine the number of breaks. We further construct a class of derivative tests to gauge the possible source of structural breaks, which is asymptotically more powerful than the nonparametric-based tests for structural breaks. Simulation studies show that our method performs well in determining the appropriate number of breaks and estimating the unknown breaks. Furthermore, the proposed tests have reasonable size and excellent power. In an application to exchange rate returns, our tests are able to detect structural breaks in distribution and locate the break dates. Our derivate tests indicate that the documented breaks appear to occur in variance and higher order moments, but not so often in mean.