Expecting the Expected? Documenting Nostalgia Effects on Baseball Card Prices

Abstract

Identifying anomalies, or empirical facts that contradict theoretical predictions, is a common form of proof by contradiction in economics and finance. We identify an apparent pricing anomaly in the market for trading cards: large and persistent death effects of about 20% are observed following the death of legendary baseball players. Rational investors should anticipate each player's eventual death, so these results suggest that profit opportunities are being left on the table. The arguably causal estimates come from interrupted time series models that adjust flexibly for time pre- and post-death and the time of sale using high-frequency sales data. The effect is largest in the days immediately following the death, but prices remain elevated for at least 60 days. Generally, our findings reaffirm the presence of a causal “nostalgia effect” of celebrity deaths on consumer demand for collectibles and products associated with the celebrity.