Situation forecasting and decision-making optimization based on using markov finite chains for areas with industrial pollutions

Volodymyr Labzhinsky,Irina Bezklubenko,Galina Getun,Andriy Solomin,Olena Balina,Yuriy Butsenko

doi:10.32347/2410-2547.2020.104.164-174

Abstract

The paper considers the issues of predicting the situations and optimizing decision-making to improve the environmental situations in the areas with industrial pollution based on the finite Markov’s chains. The article systematizes the existing approaches to forecasting technological risks. The problems associated with the search for optimal forms of environmental safety management and approaches for predicting anthropogenic impact on the environment using mathematical models are considered. To predict the state of the environment, stochastic modeling is proposed, the basis of which is the theory of finite Markov chains. A technique for predicting and optimizing the economic effect on a discrete set of strategies has been developed. The figures show: building system states graph, determining the basic characteristics of system states, finding transition probabilities of Markov chains for non-critical states, a typical cycle of checking the model’s adequacy and system quality. Based on the analysis of existing approaches to forecasting technological risks, a methodology has been developed for forecasting and optimizing the economic effect on a discrete set of strategies. The proposed methodology allows combining economic estimates with the ability to predict the situations and optimize decision-making to improve the environmental situation in the areas of possible chemical pollution. Using the developed methodology will increase the efficiency of the industrial enterprises, facilitate generating informed management decisions, create software and hardware ways to respond the emergencies. The methodology for modeling engineering within nature complex systems and the optimization of decision-making based on finite Markov chains in the areas with industrial pollution will be helpful to researchers and operators of complex technical systems in predicting emergencies using environmental monitoring systems.

Highlights

The paper proposes a methodology for modeling engineering-within-nature complex systems, which will be helpful for researchers and operators of complex technical systems in predicting the emergencies using environmental monitoring systems
The complexity of modern technical systems and the increase of man-made risks arising from environmental pollution requires the increased reliability of such systems, which can be achieved, in particular, by the use of advanced monitoring and diagnostics, and by the availability of effective means to predict probable accidents that can occur in the operation of these systems as well as the availability of timely and optimal measures of response to the emergencies
The article proposes a technique for forecasting emergencies that may occur when a nature & engineering complex system operates

Summary

AREAS WITH INDUSTRIAL POLLUTIONS

G.V. Getun, Ph D. in Technical Sciences, Professor, Professor at the Department of Architectural Structures. Y.P. Butsenko, Ph D. in Physics&Mathematics, Associate Professor, Associate Professor of Mathematical Analysis and Probability Theory Department V.A. Labzhynsky, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Associate Professor of Energy Processes and Systems Design Automation Department. O.I. Balina, Ph D. in Technical Sciences, Associate Professor, Associate Professor of Design Information. Technologies and Applied Mathematics Department I.S. Bezklubenko, Ph D., in Technical Sciences, Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Design Information Technologies and Applied Mathematics Department. A.V. Solomin, Ph D. in Physics&Mathematics, Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Biosafety and

Human Health Department

Introduction

Conclusions