Sinking Assets: Submarine Strategy and Force Planning for the 21st Century

Abstract

Abstract : The tactical submarine force has undergone one of the largest percentage force-size reductions of any major segment of the nation's armed services during the last decade. This paper examines the causes of these reductions and whether they are the natural and appropriate result of the end of the Cold War or the product of flawed force planning. The history of the first century of submarine force planning is reviewed as the foundation of the current force and the source of many of the assumptions that drive planning. Following the model of Bartlett, Holman and Somes, eight different force-planning approaches - including top-down, bottom-up, scenario, threat, mission, technology, fiscal and hedging - are examined for their implications on future submarine force levels. The key issues facing submarine force planners of the next century are identified and recommendations are made for the future direction of submarine strategy and force planning.