Simulation research on the coordinated development path of urbanization and real estate market using system dynamics in Chongqing City, Southwest China

Abstract

• Coupling link of urbanization (UR) and real estate market (REM) is studied as systems. • To build a coordinated growth simulation model of UR and REM using system dynamics. • To predict future evolution trends of UR and REM and propose predictive measures. Urbanization (UR) and the real estate market (REM) are closely related to the improvement of human living quality. However, there are fewer simulation studies on the future coordinated development path of UR and REM. Thus, this paper takes Chongqing, China as an example, and considers UR and REM as systems, where the former is divided into demographic, economic, spatial, and social UR, and the latter contains investment, supply, demand, and price. This study estimates the coordinated development links between UR and REM in 2001–2019 utilizing a VAR model and a coupling coordination evaluation model, and simulates the coordinated development path of both in 2020–2030 using system dynamics. Specifically, natural continuation type (NCT), urbanization priority type (UPT), real estate priority type (REPT), and coordinated development type (CDT) are installed using system dynamics. The results reveal that (1) the coordinated development level between UR and REM improves from serious imbalance in 2001 to good coordination in 2019; (2) the sequences of target variables under four scenarios are disparate; (3) the sequence of comprehensive development index regarding UR and REM in 2020–2030 is NCT > CDT > UPT > REPT, and CDT > REPT > UP ≈ NCT, respectively; (4) the order of coordinated development degree of both in 2020–2030 is CDT > REPT > NCT > UPT, i.e., the first-best development path is CDT. The study provides insights and methods for other Chinese inland cities or developing countries with increasing REM.