Simulation of large plausible tsunami scenarios associated with the 2019 Durres (Albania) earthquake source and adjacent seismogenic zones

Abstract

We present an analysis of the hazards of potential earthquake-generated tsunamis along the Albanian–Adriatic coast. The study adopts a case study approach to model plausible tsunamigenic events associated with the 2019 Mw 6.4 Durres (Albania) earthquake source zone. The approach combines current findings on regional tectonics and scenario-based calculations of potential tsunami impacts. The study’s goal is to analyse the propagation of tsunami waves generated by identified seismogenic sources (namely ALCS002 [Lushnje] and ALCS018 [Shijak]) and determine the tsunami risk assessment for Durres City on the Albanian–Adriatic coast. The sources can generate earthquakes with maximum moment magnitudes of Mw 7.5 and Mw 6.8, which are likely to trigger tsunamis that could cause significant impacts in the region. The modelling is performed deterministically with the NAMI DANCE numerical code, including scenarios associated with the largest plausible earthquake. The model integrates bathymetry and topography datasets of large and medium resolutions. Each tsunami scenario simulation is based on the solution of the non-linear shallow water equations used to generate maximum positive wave amplitudes (water elevation), travel time, and tsunami inundation maps. In Durres City, modelling indicates that medium-sized waves could reach up to 2.5 m inland, posing a significant danger to the city’s low-lying areas. The most substantial tsunami waves are expected to impact the area within the first 10 to 20 min. Combining inundation maps and information on exposed assets allows for identifying areas where damages can be expected. In terms of human impact, a preliminary analysis shows that the study area is prone to tsunami threat, with more than 138,000 inhabitants living in vulnerable urban areas of Durres City by 2036. The model’s capacity to capture details related to the presence of buildings is limited due to constraints posed by the resolution of bathymetry and topography datasets available during this study. If refined with high-resolution bathymetry and topography datasets, our results can be considered a backbone for exposure and resilience assessment features to be integrated into preparedness or new urban development plans.