Abstract
The high risk of real estate investment is the main obstacle to the orderly and healthy development of regional real estate market. To study the risk of real estate investment, it is necessary to analyze its influencing factors. This paper takes Tianjin as an example, based on six subsystems such as market factors and economic factors, analyzes the influencing factors of each subsystem, and synthetically determines the weight Coefficient of the index, constructing the risk System dynamics model of real estate investment. The result shows that the rise of interest rate and public emergency will bring great risk to the development of Tianjin real estate market. Finally, from the government’s point of view to establish a risk control mechanism for real estate enterprises to reduce the risk of investment to make reasonable recommendations.
Highlights
Since the 1990s, China's real estate industry has gradually entered the era of vigorous development, the real estate market in many cities has developed rapidly, it is obvious that the real estate industry has become a pillar industry supporting local economic development
On the basis of previous studies, this paper identifies the risk factors that real estate enterprises may encounter when they invest, and analyzes the cause and effect relationship among the factors, and quantifies them by introducing the method of System dynamics, using Vensim software to carry out simulation, find out the current and future period of real estate enterprise threat the biggest risk, and put forward relevant suggestions and measures of risk aversion
System Dynamics is a science that combines the theory of systems science with computer simulation to study the feedback structure and behavior of systems[7]
Summary
Since the 1990s, China's real estate industry has gradually entered the era of vigorous development, the real estate market in many cities has developed rapidly, it is obvious that the real estate industry has become a pillar industry supporting local economic development. With the passage of time, its negative impact has gradually emerged, for the Real Estate Enterprise Future Sustainable Development has brought the bigger risk. The study of Real Estate Market Investment Risk, analysis of its influencing factors, to promote the healthy and stable development of China's real estate industry is of great significance. In terms of the Quantitative analysis method, Huang Mengfei et Al. analyzed the interaction and correlation mechanism of risk control decision among real estate enterprises by using Bayesian network simulation[4]. On the basis of previous studies, this paper identifies the risk factors that real estate enterprises may encounter when they invest, and analyzes the cause and effect relationship among the factors, and quantifies them by introducing the method of System dynamics, using Vensim software to carry out simulation, find out the current and future period of real estate enterprise threat the biggest risk, and put forward relevant suggestions and measures of risk aversion
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