Simulating the Effect of Climate Change on Vegetation Zone Distribution on the Loess Plateau, Northwest China

Guoqing Li,Zhongming Wen,Sheng Du,Ke Guo

doi:10.3390/f6062092

Abstract

A risk assessment of vegetation zone responses to climate change was conducted using the classical Holdridge life zone model on the Loess Plateau of Northwest China. The results show that there are currently ten vegetation zones occurring on the Loess Plateau (1950–2000), including alvar desert, alpine wet tundra, alpine rain tundra, boreal moist forest, boreal wet forest, cool temperate desert, cool temperate desert scrub, cool temperate steppe, cool temperate moist forest, warm temperate desert scrub, warm temperate thorn steppe, and warm temperate dry forest. Seventy years later (2070S), the alvar desert, the alpine wet tundra and the cool temperate desert will disappear, while warm temperate desert scrub and warm temperate thorn steppe will emerge. The area proportion of warm temperate dry forest will expand from 12.2% to 22.8%–37.2%, while that of cool temperate moist forest will decrease from 18.5% to 6.9%–9.5%. The area proportion of cool temperate steppe will decrease from 51.8% to 34.5%–51.6%. Our results suggest that future climate change will be conducive to the growth and expansion of forest zones on the Loess Plateau, which can provide valuable reference information for regional vegetation restoration planning and adaptive strategies in this region.

Highlights

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
Two new vegetation zones will emerge on Loess Plateau and desert zones will disappear
The non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) ordination found that vegetation zones under the current climate (Figure 4A) and low emission scenarios (e.g., RCP2.6, Figure 4B) are characterized by alpine wet tundra, alpine rain tundra, and boreal moist forest

Summary

Introduction

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Anthropogenic climate changes have impacted natural and human systems on all continents [2]. Many terrestrial ecosystems and species have shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances, and species interactions in response to ongoing climate change [3,4,5,6] and have already gone extinct due to their slower rates of migration than anthropogenic climate change over the past few hundred years [7,8,9]. Accurate assessment of the possible effects of climate change and its irreversible and catastrophic impacts are increasingly viewed as a major challenge for human beings [10]. The fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion