Abstract
Climate change dominantly controls the spatial distributions of potential vegetation ecosystems; the shift trends in the mean centers of potential vegetation ecosystems could be used to explain their responses to climate change. In terms of the climate observation data of Eurasia for the period from 1981 to 2010 and the climate scenario data for the period from 2011 to 2100 under the three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and, RCP8.5, which were released by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the Holdridge Life Zone (HLZ) ecosystem model was improved to quantitatively classify the potential vegetation types, and the shift model of mean center was adopted to compute the trends in the spatiotemporal shifts of potential vegetation types in Eurasia. The results showed that the mean centers of the major potential vegetation ecosystems would be distributed in the central and southern parts of Eurasia. Under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, the potential shift distances of the mean centers of the vegetation types under the RCP8.5 scenario would be the largest, and those of the polar/nival area, subpolar/alpine moist tundra, warm temperate dry forest, subtropical moist forest, cool temperate moist forest, cool temperate wet forest, subtropical wet forest, subtropical thorn woodland, warm temperate moist forest and subtropical dry forest would be larger than those in the other potential vegetation types in Eurasia. Moreover, the shift directions of the mean centers of the major potential vegetation types would generally shift northward, and subtropical dry forest, warm temperate moist forest and subpolar/alpine moist tundra would be the most sensitive to change among all vegetation types under the three scenarios for the period from 2011 to 2100.
Highlights
Changes in vegetation ecosystems, which are major indicators of global change on the Earth’s surface, play a crucial role in maintaining the human living environment and its sustainable development [1,2]
Under the RCP4.5 scenario seen in Table 3, Figure 4, the results show that the shift distances of the mean centers of the subpolar/alpine moist tundra, subtropical dry forest, warm temperate moist forest, cool temperate wet forest, subtropical thorn woodland, cool temperate moist forest, subtropical wet forest, and cold temperate moist forest would be larger than those in other potential vegetation types and would shift more than 200 km per decade on average, while those of the cool temperate rain forest, tropical very dry forest, desert, and tropical thorn woodland would shift less than 29 km per decade during the period from to 2010 (T0) to T3
Under the RCP8.5 scenario seen in Table 4, Figure 5, the results showed that the shift distances of the mean centers of the subpolar/alpine moist tundra, subtropical dry forest, warm temperate moist forest, cool temperate wet forest, subtropical wet forest, subtropical thorn woodland, cool temperate moist forest, cold temperate moist forest, polar/nival area, and subtropical moist forest would be larger than those of other potential vegetation types with a shift distance of more than 200 km per decade on average, while those of the cool temperate rain forest, tropical very dry forest, desert, and cold temperate dry scrub would shift less than 45 km per decade during the period from T0 to T3
Summary
Changes in vegetation ecosystems, which are major indicators of global change on the Earth’s surface, play a crucial role in maintaining the human living environment and its sustainable development [1,2]. As an important aspect of global change, has caused a series of changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of vegetation ecosystems [3,4,5]. The interactions between climate and vegetation ecosystems have always been a hot topic in global change research [6]. A long-term investigation of the correlation between climate change and vegetation ecosystem change [7]. The key climate parameters of biotemperature, precipitation and evaporation directly determine the changes in the spatial distribution of terrestrial ecosystems [10,11,12,13,14,15]. A series of Forests 2019, 10, 873; doi:10.3390/f10100873 www.mdpi.com/journal/forests
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
