Abstract
The manuscript presents a simple mathematical model for predicting the amount of energy produced in a wind turbine. As part of the own research, the data obtained from the SCADA program for the Enercon E-82 wind turbine was analyzed. It has been shown that it is possible to build a mathematical model to determine the amount of energy produced from the average wind speed. This method will be primarily useful for forecasting the volume of production as well as electricity demand, with particular emphasis on renewable energy sources. The application of the developed method in practice will facilitate and accelerate the implementation of the decision-making process in electricity production systems, while reducing the risk of error. This model can also be used to make repowering decisions.
Highlights
The high share of wind energy in the national power system creates many problems. They are caused by unstable operation of wind farms due to changing wind speed
A constant production of electricity must be maintained in the energy system
The main goal of the research was to develop regression models. These models are to enable the determination of average daily amounts of electricity produced by wind turbines depending on the average daily wind speed
Summary
The high share of wind energy in the national power system creates many problems. They are caused by unstable operation of wind farms due to changing wind speed. A constant production of electricity must be maintained in the energy system. In the case of high variability of electricity production, it is necessary to maintain other sources. An "energy mix" is being created based on electricity from renewable sources and fossil fuels. A system constructed in this way must ensure a high potential for reliability of electricity supply. Maintaining such a complex system incurs high costs. They are related to construction and maintenance [1, 2]
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