Short-term wind power prediction using a novel model based on butterfly optimization algorithm-variational mode decomposition-long short-term memory

Abstract

The precise forecasting of wind power output is crucial for the integration of large-scale renewable energy generation into the power grid. It plays a vital role in ensuring safe and stable operation of power grid, diminishing fuel consumption, and minimizing environmental impacts. This research presents a machine learning prediction model that integrates intelligent optimization algorithms and data decomposition techniques for short-term wind power output forecasting. The initial phase of this research develops a prediction model utilizing variational mode decomposition and long short-term memory networks. To mitigate the randomness and uncertainty of wind energy, and improve prediction accuracy, the butterfly optimization algorithm is introduced to optimize the parameters of variational mode decomposition and long short-term memory networks. Several in-depth case studies are carried out on the actual wind power generation dataset in mainland China to confirm the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms the compared model in terms of prediction accuracy across different seasons, showing good practicality and generalizability.