MC-VMD-CNN-BiLSTM short-term wind power prediction considering rolling error correction

Abstract

Abstract Wind energy is a clean and renewable source that has the potential to alleviate the global fossil fuel crisis and environmental pollution by generating electricity. However, accurately predicting wind energy output remains challenging due to its inherent uncertainty. To enhance the accuracy of wind power prediction, a short-term wind power forecasting method for power systems, MC-VMD-CNN-BiLSTM, is proposed, which considers error rolling correction. The method begins with feature selection and outlier handling using the quadrature method. Then, wind power data is decomposed into multiple sub-sequences using the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) technique to reduce the raw volatility of wind power. Then, a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) followed by a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) model is used for wind power prediction. Finally, the proposed method utilizes the Monte Carlo method for rolling error correction by using known errors from previous time frames to correct subsequent predictions. The MC-VMD-CNN-BiLSTM proposed in this paper considering error rolling correction is compared with ELM, SVM, PSO-BP and ARIMA models through an example analysis of the data of a city, and the proposed model in this paper reduces 61.78%, 50.35%, 62.30% and 73.05% in the NRMSE index in the spring as an example, respectively. The results show that the prediction model proposed in this paper has higher prediction accuracy compared with the traditional prediction model.