Abstract
Climate change is one of the most significant causes of species range shift and extinction. Based on a citizen science dataset of birds in China, the Bird Report, we developed a high-resolution map of bird species richness in China, and simulated the range shifts and area changes of the 1,042 birds through the year 2070 using three different General Circulation Models and two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, including RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). It was found that 241–244 (under different scenarios) bird species would lose a portion of their distribution ranges; and that most species in China would move to either higher elevations or northward. The other 798–801 species would experience range expansion. Compared to resident species (n = 516), migratory birds (n = 526) may undergo more limited range expansion but a longer range shift distance on average. The species diversity of birds will considerably increase in areas higher than 1,500 m in elevation under both RCPs. Conservation priorities with higher species richness were also identified using the Zonation model. The existing national nature reserves are not sufficient for protecting important bird habitats, especially after range shifts. Significant gaps in protected areas were observed in the northern Xinjiang, southern Tibet, Greater Khingan, Sanjiang Plain, Songnen Plain, northern Bohai Rim, and southeastern coastline areas. Many of these areas are characterized by high human populations and intensive development, and establishing sizable protected areas has become difficult. Inclusive conservation mechanisms that include restoring habitats in urban parks and sharing habitats in farmland areas, may be a feasible solution.
Highlights
Biodiversity conservation must take the impact of climate change into account
The histogram of range change for all bird species (Fig 1) shows that in general, species will have a broader range under RCP 8.5 than under RCP 2.6 (Z = -4.49, P-value = 3.5E-6), more range may be lost under RCP 8.5 for the 30% species that reduce their ranges (Table 1)
The East Asian—Australasian Flyway (EAAF), which is used by many threatened species and shared by 22 countries from Russia to New Zealand, and 246 bird species migrate through China [48]
Summary
Biodiversity conservation must take the impact of climate change into account. By 2100, 68% of terrestrial and 39% of tropical marine assemblages are predicted to have more than 20% of their constituent species exposed to unprecedented temperatures [1]. Bird range changes call for innovative conservation in China these authors are articulated in the ‘author contributions’ section
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